A New history of the Italian Renaisance

Wargaming is a hobby about history and wargame campaign is a chance to write or rewrite history. Usually we start we start with known battle or war as a starting point. But history is also about what could have been and this is one of those stories,
In July 1480 a Turkish fleet unable to take Rhodes descends upon the Italian port of Otranto. After a siege of about three weeks the city fell to the Turkish forces. For the rest of that summer various coastal communities along the coast of Italy were raided by the Turks. When Winter arrived it was difficult to supply such a large force so they returned to Turkish territory leaving behind a small garrison to defend their new conquest.
In 1481 a Neapolitan army gathered to retake Otranto, this included Hungarians sent by the King Ferdinand's son in law, King Matthias Corvinus of Hungary. The Turks were presumably awaiting a relief force to arrive so as to continue their advance. But the Neapolitan army arrived first. Then three days after the arrival of the Neapolitan force at Otranto, the Sultan died plunging the ottoman empire into a civil war. With no relief coming the garrison surrendered and left Italy.
The attraction for me is that I can put both sides into field, though of course I can always do with a few more troops to do it properly :-). So let us see what sort of alternative history can be written as the Turks attempt to push into Italy.
Forces involved - 1480
Otranto garrison

• 400 men
• 800+ civic militia

The garrison is reported to have fled while the Ottomans were summoning Otranto to surrender. This left the civic militia to defend the place. I have assumed this to over 800 men as it is reputed that this is number of citizens massacred when the Turks took the city. So there were definitely some interest in putting up a fight.
Turkish forces

• 700 cavalry
• 18,000 infantry

Two comments. The number of infantry is probably exaggerated and will include a lot of non-combatants. This could reduce the Turks down to about 9000 actual combat troops. Second a large percentage of the infantry are actually dismounted cavalry. Now while I don't have access to any breakdown for this force
Forces involved - 1481
Otranto garrison

• 500 cavalry
• 800 infantry

Neapolitan Forces

• Unknown at this stage but over a thousand Hungarians.